Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Penguins & Free Agency

Lost in what seems likely to be a lengthy stalemate on the Letang front is how our Pittsburgh Penguins might tweak the lineup when it comes to forwards. There's little doubt that several forwards from the top-six down will be adjusted, if not overhauled.

Late last season we became enamored with Beau Bennett's play and the general consensus seems to believe that he'll play top-six minutes starting this Fall. Good. That's the right move, but its also a move that coach Joe Nobody would get right.

What do the Pens need to do then? Let's ignore my previous discussion about how the Pens should trade Letang for a couple of forward prospects (plus picks). Here's what's going to happen and how Shero should react.

Reading the tea leaves, we are going to lose Pascale Dupuis. The window for retaining his services closed late last week, when Shero focused his efforts on Letang's potential new deal. He's going to cash in on his last chance to get a big money contract (as he should). We're also going to lose Matt Cooke. Credit him with completely retooling his game and becoming a more whole player, but he's expendable. Yes, there's a bit of tenacity and flexibility lost here. There's scuttlebutt about him coming back for pennies on the dollar (I hear somewhere in excess of a $500k pay cut) but rest assured - he'll be cut loose. He may be a changed player, but he still carries the "Matt Cooke Bias" with him, and it might be time to put some separation between our penalty kill and his, sometimes-unfair-but-consistent penalties. Craig Adams while useful, will probably be a casualty of change if not age.

So, if this holds true, we'll be losing a top line forward, a middle-ground forward and a bottom line forward at the very least. What should Shero do to replace them? If I were Shero, I'd start at the top and work my way down. As I mentioned before, Beau Bennett alleviates the loss of at least one of Matt Cooke / Pascale Dupuis. Let's place Bennett on the Neal/Malkin line. That leaves the hole at the top vacated by Dupuis. Filling that position may be tough but there are potential bargains to be had. Dustin Penner just came off his second disappointing season with the LA Kings. His pedigree suggests that the last two years are flukes. He's 30, and Shero loves to hand out the 2-year deals when it comes to veteran talent. This could be a very reasonable and realistic marriage. Heck, even perennial underachiever Mason Raymond, recently of the Canucks, might not be that bad a fit. He does have a recent productive season, and he's only 27.

And what about last offseason's big steal in the Islander's Brad Boyes. Before this blog existed, I made quite the stink in my former workplace about why it would be a veritable steal to sign this guy to a "prove it" deal. New York did just that and it worked. He made $1M and is set to score a decent deal when free agency opens (and priced himself out of the Pens plans). The Pens can't afford to let something like that slip by again. Shero has precious few free agent talents from which to pluck. He needs make one grab early, and address the lingering question about the bottom lines only thereafter.

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